Saturday, April 18, 2009

Hypocrisy and Culpability: Considering Karen’s Conflict

Part 2
Hypocrisy, in general, and under most circumstances, is not illegal, and is oftentimes tolerated with amusement and forgiven. Celebrities, executives, judges, pastors, academics, and all custodians of public trust, confidence, office, and purse, however, now more than ever, are the subject of intense, ongoing, and damning scrutiny both for the degree of fit between what they say and do and their fitness, not merely finesse, for the tasks entrusted to them. Consider the glocal financial meltdown, some of the blame for which is being placed on David Li’s Gaussian copula function, a correlational model, which was widely adopted on Wall Street. As Felix Salmon notes in the February Wired magazine cover story, “the real danger was created not because any given trader adopted it but because every trader did. In financial markets, everybody doing the same thing is the classic recipe for a bubble and inevitable bust.” Another part of the problem Salmon notes is that “the quants, who should have been more aware of the copula's weaknesses, weren't the ones making the big asset-allocation decisions. Their managers, who made the actual calls, lacked the math skills to understand what the models were doing or how they worked. They could, however, understand something as simple as a single correlation number.” Finally, early and serious warnings were ignored, “partly because the managers empowered to apply the brakes didn't understand the arguments between various arms of the quant universe. Besides, they were making too much money to stop.” All of this was coupled with a lack of sufficient and appropriate financial oversight, regulation and timely accountability by policy makers in Washington.

What is clear from the above is that managers and decision makers, especially in the area of Finance need much more sophisticated mathematical understandings than many may currently possess. They need to improve their fitness. Additionally, us “quants” who do “get this math” need to be much more vocal and forceful in having our voices and concerns heard and listened to by the public and those who make decisions on the public’s behalf. Indeed, we need to find suitable “quants” from among the ranks to occupy those positions of power and responsibility. This will probably require a little more finesse and clarity of communication than most mathematicians are used to or comfortable with. Finally, we need to find fecund financial stewards who demonstrate fitness, finesse as well as an unwavering commitment to fairness – individuals with meticulous, not mercurial, moral mettle. Greed is a strong attractor. It must not be given license with indifference to social injustice which corrupts the body politic.

Unfortunately for Karen she seems to be demonstrating a decided lack of fitness where financial matters are concerned. In addition, her finesse is slowly sublimating, diffusing what credibility and force of moral, legal or political suasion she has left. I think I understand fully her defensive strategy, a dictum that good lawyers always advise their clients to follow: never admit guilt or liability as the burden of proof always rests with the prosecution. Her pre-emptive maneuvers however are interesting since she has not (yet) been formally charged with any crime, though she is working hard to influence and change the tenor of the conversation in the unforgiving court of public opinion at present.

The Lenten period in which this political drama unfolded is one of wandering, reflection, repentance and renewed commitment to life-giving principles from the source from which Life issues. In the Christian tradition this manifests itself in the repeated and prolonged examination of conscience, given voice via the mea culpa – “through my own fault” and ultimately manifested in a change in personal behavior and character. The culpa here refers to an act of commission or omission and the Minister appears to be doubly culpable. I continue to pray that Karen and her Cabinet colleagues retreat and receive the blessing of one pair of big C’s that lie at the heart of the Christian journey towards and during Easter – a Contrite Conscience – and that they remember that of the two thieves crucified with Jesus at Golgotha, only one was promised paradise…

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